Monday, May 10, 2004

Global Wild Cards

Stephen Roach

...There can be no mistaking the powerful upturn in the global business cycle that began in mid-2003. The key question all along has been one of sustainability. In retrospect, the old policy multipliers worked after all — certainly better than I gave them credit for. But, then again, the Authorities injected a stimulus the likes of which of the modern-day world economy had never seen. Alas, now it’s payback time. For a still unbalanced global economy, that payback could be especially severe. Put oil, China, and the Fed into the equation — all deflationary forces — and the endgame starts to look downright treacherous. The rapidly escalating undercurrent of geopolitical angst only compounds the problem. All that leads me to conclude that this confluence of global wild cards could make the current rebound in the global economy one of the shortest on record.

And check this out - Edward Hugh

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