Thursday, June 12, 2008

Oil's Tulip Mania?___Oil & Reality

Att: Hon. President Elect, Barack Obama___NATIONAL SECURITY
Iff: In case the oil and derivatives mess, the world is presently in, turns into a full blown national and global emergency, here’s an emergency sketch-plan for the necessary moves to be taken, and WHY…

U.S. Balance of Payments With China Link:
Important article: The End of The Beginning
Paul Krugman

Oil’s Tulip-Mania?___Oil & Reality

Long ago people became so exuberant they actually paid as much as $75 thousand dollars, for certain species of tulip bulbs___How far might oil prices rise before people and nations come to their senses, and realize something must be done?___Something really meaningful and serious… Years past, it collapsed the whole system, before people came to their senses___Need this happen again? Not if we actually learn from history’s many, many past mistakes, of similar nature. Plain and simple, this is perpetual economic suzerainty(aggregate incentives’ transactions flows) from one main power nation to another___It’s mathematically, mechanically going to take place, unless we change course. It’s happened before, with Spain’s economic suzeraintic changes over the Dutch. It happened with England’s economic suzeraintic changes over the Dutch and Spanish Empires. It happened with America’s economic suzerainty over England’s Empire, and it’s now happening to America, as China assumes perpetual economic suzerainty over us, unless we drastically change course. The other related economic name and theory for this extreme market condition mechanics is best explained and known as “Specie Point Theory”(treasuries are here, transposed as a new specie theory mechanics), and it’s well documented and understood. Once massive currency imbalances exist, as they do between China, America and others, and commodity and goods prices start inflating/deflating, then hyper-inflating/hyper-deflating(incentives’ massive transactions flows___short and long), in a bottled up area, it becomes, at a certain point, impossible to stem the rising tide___and the world presently has five such major areas of concern___The Mid-East, China, Russia, Wall St., and the global Enron style derivatives’ “Shadow Banking” market(derivatives are here transposed as a new specie theory mechanics). It happened with tulip bulbs. It happened with gold from the new world, in Spain. It happened with John Law’s bank note over-issue. It happened with Napolean’s currency speculation during the French Revolution. It happened with Germany `23’s intentional currency hyper-inflation. It happened with Russia’s intentional currency hyper-inflation, in the early `20’s, shortly before Germany’s. It has happened in numerous countries then, before and since, and many of recent years, but the possibility of oil depletion offers a truly unique and fundamental change of outright potential necessity___Mother nature rules, in this case___Will we foolishly let it happen with derivatives, and or, oil? This is a first, where the world may be running low of the most needed commodity/resource in the history of humanity___and everyone will be fighting for it___and the world is massively currency imbalanced(Prof. Cassel’s true PPP{purchasing price parity} theory is here transposed). Must it become another “Tulip-Mania”, turning out as extreme “perpetual economic suzerainty” changes from America to China, and most likely eventual outright war, or can we develop the intelligence, and grand strategies necessary, to avoid such a potential catastrophe?

Now, the argument goes that we even have plenty of oil, right here in America, and the other side is we are truly running short, not only in America, but globally. After studying and writing others about this problematic argument for years, it seems to be clear we should listen to the experts. As far back as the `50’s, a Shell Oil engineer, one Mr. Hubbert, warned the US it would reach peak oil by the `70’s___We did. He also predicted the world oil supplies would also peak between 2000 and 2010___It seems to be true, especially when we combine this information with oil Bankers like a Mr. Mathew Simmons, and hundreds of other experts in the field of oil, such as T.Boon Pickens___They all agree that oil demand is beginning to exceed supply. They are all singing Hubbert’s song, as am I. Whether we have truly peaked, at this very moment, or not, the problem is still certainly serious enough to warrant emergency change, to ensure true social and military defense capabilities and future safety, when the market price rises to $140 a barrel, before dropping slightly___and we’ll, absolutely, certainly arrive at peak oil, all too soon . The real point is one of facing the eco-geo-political-military requirements, stabilities, and possible outcomes over time and truly doing something about it, or not___and now and not later___Better safe than sorry…!

If after reading what I write below(China’s Intent or Resources Depletion Necessities), and deeply contemplating the seriousness of potential outcomes, maybe we can talk about possible solutions, and I mean real and mammoth, extremely responsible, mathematically realizable, visionary projects. I’m just going to be brief and paint with a broad brush, but you’ll get the ideas. We immediately need to delist and negotiate a reasonable, sliding time scale, set price, for all the world’s oil, with all the nations of the world involved___as this problem is not going away any time soon. We immediately need a new “National Emergency Bank of the US.” We immediately need a new “National Energy Bank.” The Emergency Bank can and should be housed in the US Treasury, and instituted by re-chartering. The Energy Bank can and should be housed within the Dept. of Energy, and also instituted by re-chartering. We immediately need major IFA(international financial architecture) reform___True global PPP(purchasing price parity, not the false Arrow/Debreau purchasing power parity) currency re-balancing, which can be housed and re-chartered under the existing IMF(International Monetary Fund). This will require major new IXC(internal exchange clearing) capital controls, and external capital controls, during the temporary implementation period, and clearing, and serious attention must be paid to new “Sliding Time Scale Laws” implementations___this is possible with or without global cooperation___I offer a completely self-balancing, self-autonomous system, if interested. The WTO(World Trade Organization), trade treaties should be, sliding time scale, re-aligned with the new IFA___many varied options exist for final implementations. The new Emergency Bank will require Keynes’ highly expanded Bancor, to a sliding time scaled “Triple Entry Banking” law and emergency lending system. Keynes’ Bancor System will be required to be stabilized by Alfred Marshall’s major “Units of Production” standards, to control any possible inflations of the massive printing of monies needed, to reach a safe emergency level of real and workable national eco-political-military defense, of total energy independence, enhancing social and military safety. This will require new instituting and chartering laws, within the commercial entities’ existing corporate charters, of the entire nation___complete explanations will show this system’s higher efficiencies and productivities of transactions’ capital flows, at no added costs to corporations and businesses___It‘s just an inflation stabilizer system, to make reasonable fundamental use of the printing press___and actually pays down existing national and global debt(imbalances of balance of payments liquidations), with a new highly productive credit mechanics, to its percentage of sliding time scale institution. The Emergency Bank will be required to safely and timely create the trillions of dollars necessary to finance three major refinery systems, Coal, Sugar and Water___That’s major coal hydrogenation/liquifaction/gassification refineries, huge sugar refineries to ethanol, and massive water desalinization refineries and pipelines to irrigate the deserts, and southern farmlands, to grow the necessary sugar cane, for our future national energy security and food needs’ supplementations. All three will be required, even if we finance and drill everywhere possible, and build and finance nuclear power plants, wind farms and solar plants, and go to all other green technologies possible___as fast as safely possible…

The local and global eco-geo-political-military situation requires it…

Is this at all exaggerated?___Read below…

China’s Intent or Resources Depletion Necessities?

The Chinese intent is the most important national security issue, we Americans face, now and in the future___What is it? America needs a major awakening, macro-globally, to what we truly face, by being foreign-dependent on our oil supplies. IMO, China views the global eco-geo-political-military position of America very clearly, while our officials make false assessments, of the dire situation developing, by being blinded by our over-inflated nuclear-ego assessments of the real potential danger. Has anyone truly realized, our oil must be carried across two major militarily un-protectable oceans, leaving America a sitting duck, on the tiny islands of N. and S. America. We need far more oil than will be available, should a conventional WW-III break out, or even a major terrorist attack takes place on Mid-East oil ports. We will be stranded, by China's future submarine capabilities___I do not state this lightly, as I have studied the sub-hunting capabilities, for years___sound, radio and magnetic wave capabilities of all detection systems, if you know what I mean. Everyone must realize, while we've been asleep under BushCo's wars, China has also moved extensively into Africa's rich resources, of which oil is 30% of global supplies. Also, strategically, Africa, and China's entry of over 2000% increase of resource exports, from Africa, over the last decade, compared to America's only 400% increase, gives China a geo-military-political advantage of considerable force___She's now practically surrounding the Mid-East oil fields, as well, with all the Chinese she’s shipped to Africa, to do her bribed bidding. Somebody had better wake up in America, and see China, from China's, long term, strategic military and eco-geo-political perspectives, than from America's false ego's confidence, short term, perspective.

All I need do is ask, “How do you expect America to transport its oil across two oceans, if an almost certain, future conventional oil war breaks out, over known resource declines of said oil?” And, if one plays out the strategic logistics of an extended conventional oil war, just look at the eco-geo-political-military regional consequences___Three basic autocracies___Russia, China and Islam, while democracy is globally in decline, as autocracies rise, as Robert Kagan has pointed out in his newest book, and will more than likely see a capitulation of India and Europe, over the time of an extended war, to the Chinese side, in any real global conventional conflict, as nuclear must be ruled out as “MAD”(mutually assured destruction), and I don‘t really believe anyone is going to be that stupid, yet the conventional advantage is glaringly obvious… And, believe me, conventionally, it's approaching fast, and America better awaken___the logistics I speak of are a real possibility. Further, do it by population scenarios of macro eco-geo-political-militarism, and one quickly sees why any Mid-East oil war, would force India and Europe to capitulate___We all know, in the back of our minds, who will be the true land-powers, in any such scenario___They can walk to the Mid-East___We can’t, and remember, one of the major reasons Germany lost WWII was our cutting off her oil supplies in N. Africa. Is it going to be a repeat of history, or will we awake? China and Russia could hold Mid-East oil hostage to India and Europe, joining them, by the shear forces of economic and food starvation tactics, to Russia and China’s side, as China is presently buying submarines from her friend, Russia, along with building her own, faster than we’re baking new loaves of bread. In any extended conventional naval battle, America would surely lose against such odds, and the autocracies’ sophisticated technologies’ capabilities, as all these land locked autocratic empires need do, is sink our oil tankers, with any number of conventional means{also remember China hitting that satellite with a missile last year___they have the capabilities}, thus possibly forcing America to even think about taking over all of N. and S. America’s oil supplies to survive___yet how long would this last, with their starving populations, coming here for food, and vengeance?___and remember also, one of China's new class diesel-electric-battery-air propulsion subs surfaced, right in the middle of our Pacific Ocean carrier group, etc., exercises, just last year, without detection___A major embarrassment to the big wigs…

We'd better start studying these scenarios a bit deeper, and fast make America energy independent, as at the moment, we have a very insecure, and extremely inadequate, national defense policy and actual potential. In just a few years, we'll have a naked national security defense potential. This is serious...!!!

America definitely needs “A Grand Independent Finance and Energy Strategy“___Immediately…!!!

A $9+ trillion national debt, and $1+ trillion leaving the nation for the oil autocracies, and the trade-goods autocracy of China, every year___How long does anyone, truly, think this can last…? We’re free-trading the Eagle’s paper money, into the mouth of a Fierce Fire Breathing Dragon…!!! Last I checked, fire burns paper eagles…

Thanks to Obama___Change the World? YES WE CAN…!

Please read these articles___important… {Scroll down page for info-graphics}

A Note To Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman Link:
Paul Einzig Link:

Excellent view of Keynesian thought, Paul. I'd just like to point out something you wrote, but may not have realized its thorough implications. WWII, as you rightly mentioned, was a public works project, but a massive one, and is the most important implied aspect of Keynes' entire manifesto, imho. Expansionary fiscal policy, alone, doesn't cut it. It must be accompanied by public works, in the most dire of times, as the `30's certainly were, and WWII’s recovery, clearly shows, etc., as fiscal stimulus, only, simply goes up the chimney of Wall St. investment and speculation, far too quickly, thus lowering TFP. It must be spread to Main St., through public infrastructure spending, as Keynes suggested, in the worst of times, to spread and slow the velocity of stimulus mechanics, throughout the entire economy, to truly raise TFP…

As to the deeper analysis of Keynes' great work, his "IFA-international financial architecture", of which you do not mention, in your piece, since it really wasn't in his "General Theory", yet is the central achievement of his thought, must be brought to the front, and thoroughly re-interpreted. I would title such a work, "The General Theory of Massive Currency Tariffs, Massive Currency Credits, and TFP Decline"___What Keynes/Einzig tried to prevent in 1945___Nixon instituted in the 1972 era, and evolved by 2008___to the highest, most nefarious, currency trade tariffs, credits/subsidies and off-shoring incentives, the world has ever known… Skedelsky is quite clear on the importance of Keynes IFA contributions, and further, his yet untried balance of payments "Bancor" system. I think if we were to work through a re-interpretation of these more central mechanics of Keynes' thought, we would be better prepared for what the world may shortly face…

Thanks for your great thinking,
and with due respect,
Lloyd Gillespie
(a polymath, autodidact, true Keynesian economist)

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